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Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty

An enormous amount of theoretical and empirical research effort has been devoted to decision under risk and decision under uncertainty during the past few decades. I comment here on two topics that illustrate very different facets of this work. Both have assumed that tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on X is a weak order. The first is a theory of subjective expected utility that relaxes continuity or an Archimedean axiom to obtain vector-valued utilities ordered lexicographically along with subjective probabilities characterized by real matrices rather than real numbers. The second departs more radically from traditional theories and considers the role of a binary operation tex2html_wrap_inline1045 of joint receipt. The principal investigators are Irving LaValle in the lexicographic domain and Duncan Luce for joint receipt.

The lexicographic story beings with Hausner's (1954) lexicographic linear utility theory for a weak order tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on a mixture space X that can be viewed as a set of lotteries or it's generalization for (7) that is closed under a mixture operation. Hausner assumed that tex2html_wrap_inline1051 and tex2html_wrap_inline1057 satisfy independence tex2html_wrap_inline2347 ; tex2html_wrap_inline2349 and proved that tex2html_wrap_inline1055 is represented by a linear mapping into a real vector space ordered lexicographically. When the vector space has finite dimension, say tex2html_wrap_inline2353 , this gives tex2html_wrap_inline2355 that satisfies (7) along with

  equation889

where tex2html_wrap_inline2357 if the two vectors are not equal and tex2html_wrap_inline2359 for the smallest i at which they differ. When tex2html_wrap_inline2363 , (7) is

eqnarray431

with each tex2html_wrap_inline1227 a linear functional on X. We say that u is parsimonious of dimension m if the representation can not be satisfied by any linear utility function of smaller dimension. Given that u is parsimonious of dimension m, it is unique up to an affine transformation

displaymath2377

where v,u and tex2html_wrap_inline2381 are m-dimensional column vectors, tex2html_wrap_inline2381 is fixed, and G is an m-by-m lower triangular matrix (0's above the main diagonal) with all diagonal entries positive.

Failures of continuity that force tex2html_wrap_inline2393 in (7) and (11) are analyzed in detail in Fishburn (1982). The typical failure occurs when tex2html_wrap_inline2395 and tex2html_wrap_inline2397 for all tex2html_wrap_inline1659 , in which case there is a unique tex2html_wrap_inline2401 such that

displaymath2403

An example based on marginal probabilities is tex2html_wrap_inline2405 in which tex2html_wrap_inline1755 is the probability of dying and tex2html_wrap_inline2409 is the probability that you or your heirs will receive $10. If no increase in tex2html_wrap_inline1755 can be compensated for by increasing tex2html_wrap_inline2409 to 1, then tex2html_wrap_inline1051 can not be represented by a linear unidimensional utility function, but tex2html_wrap_inline2417 can represent tex2html_wrap_inline1051 lexicographically.

The extension of linear lexicographic utility to decision under uncertainty in LaValle and Fishburn (1991, 1992, 1996a) and Fishburn and LaValle (1993) formulates X as the set of all finite-support probability distributions, called mixed acts, on a set A of acts in tex2html_wrap_inline1787 with tex2html_wrap_inline2427 . In the main state-independent version of our theory, we assume that every consequence is relevant for every state in S, that the constant-act set tex2html_wrap_inline2431 is included in A, and that A has some additional structure. We denote by tex2html_wrap_inline2437 the set of all lotteries on C and let tex2html_wrap_inline2441 denote the marginal distribution in state i of tex2html_wrap_inline1793 .

The preference relation tex2html_wrap_inline1051 applies to X, and for p and q in tex2html_wrap_inline2437 , tex2html_wrap_inline2457 means that tex2html_wrap_inline1151 when tex2html_wrap_inline2461 and tex2html_wrap_inline2463 for every consequence tex2html_wrap_inline1647 . We assume the following axioms: tex2html_wrap_inline1051 is a weak order, tex2html_wrap_inline1051 and tex2html_wrap_inline1057 satisfy independence,

displaymath2473

and a relaxed form of Archimedean axiom which implies that the lexicographic hierarchy has only finitely many levels. The axioms imply the existence of linear tex2html_wrap_inline2475 and tex2html_wrap_inline2477 that preserve lexicographically tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on X and tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on tex2html_wrap_inline2437 , respectively, with parsimonious dimension J of tex2html_wrap_inline2489 and K of u. Because tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on tex2html_wrap_inline2437 is tantamount to the restriction of tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on X to mixed constant acts, we have tex2html_wrap_inline2503 , and K < J if preferences between other acts force levels into the hierarchy not accounted for by u on tex2html_wrap_inline2437 . Uniqueness follows the format described after (11).

Subjective matrix probabilities tex2html_wrap_inline2511 for tex2html_wrap_inline2513 rectify tex2html_wrap_inline2515 with tex2html_wrap_inline2517 in the expression

displaymath2519

where tex2html_wrap_inline2515 and tex2html_wrap_inline2523 are J-dimensional column vectors and tex2html_wrap_inline2511 is a J-by-K real matrix that premultiplies the K-dimensional column vector tex2html_wrap_inline2535 . Matrix tex2html_wrap_inline2511 begins with tex2html_wrap_inline2539 nonzero columns followed by tex2html_wrap_inline2541 zero columns such that the first nonzero entry in column k for tex2html_wrap_inline2545 is a positive number in row tex2html_wrap_inline2547 for some tex2html_wrap_inline2549 . In addition (LaValle and Fishburn 1996a), tex2html_wrap_inline2551 for some i, tex2html_wrap_inline2555 for some i, and the J rows of the J-by-nK matrix tex2html_wrap_inline2565 are linearly independent. The resulting representation is

  equation892

LaValle and Fishburn (1996b, 1996c) show how to assess the vector utilities and matrix probabilities in (12). The latter paper also describes admissible transformations of the matrix-probability distribution tex2html_wrap_inline2567 for any given u that put tex2html_wrap_inline2567 in a standard normalized form. With tex2html_wrap_inline2573 , we say that tex2html_wrap_inline2567 is a standard matrix distribution if the K columns of tex2html_wrap_inline2579 are unit vectors tex2html_wrap_inline2581 with the 1's in row positions tex2html_wrap_inline2583 left to right. Thus, if K = J, then tex2html_wrap_inline2579 is the K-by-K identity matrix. If K < J then standard tex2html_wrap_inline2579 has J-K rows of zeros interspersed among the rows below row 1 of the K-by-K identity matrix.

Our second topic for decision under uncertainty is motivated by situations with holistic alternatives that consist of similar but clearly identifiable pieces received jointly, such as two checks and a bill in today's mail or the good news and bad news parts of a medical diagnosis. A fundamental behavioral question asks how people evaluate such alternatives for preference comparison or choice. Do they tend to combine similar pieces and then evaluate wholes, or do they evaluate pieces and then combine these evaluations to arrive at holistic assessments? And, in either case, what rules or operations govern the combining process?

To consider these questions, let tex2html_wrap_inline2603 denote a nonempty set of basic objects, such as amounts of money or lotteries, and let tex2html_wrap_inline1045 denote a binary operation of joint receipt that applies first to tex2html_wrap_inline2603 and then to tex2html_wrap_inline2609 defined recursively by

displaymath2611

for tex2html_wrap_inline2613 , so that tex2html_wrap_inline2615 with limit tex2html_wrap_inline2617 . We assume that tex2html_wrap_inline2619 . Then X includes at least one joint-receipt level. We assume also that tex2html_wrap_inline1051 on X is a weak order.

An elementary case of joint receipt that does not involve decision under risk or uncertainty takes tex2html_wrap_inline2627 with tex2html_wrap_inline2629 . We interpret tex2html_wrap_inline2631 as an amount of money and refer to tex2html_wrap_inline2633 as a gain and to tex2html_wrap_inline2635 as a loss. An early empirical and partly theoretical study of joint receipt for this case is Thaler (1985), followed by Thaler and Johnson (1990) and Linville and Fischer (1991). They focused in part on the hedonic editing rule

  equation896

where tex2html_wrap_inline1253 is strictly increasing, preserves tex2html_wrap_inline1051 , and has its origin fixed by u(0) = 0. This indicates pre-evaluation aggregation in u(x+y) as well as post-evaluation aggregation in u(x) + u(y), with addition as the combining operation in each case. Thaler (1985) found that subjects tend to have tex2html_wrap_inline2647 when x and y are losses, but tex2html_wrap_inline2653 when x and y are gains, and these agree with (13) if u is convex in losses and concave in gains. Fishburn and Luce (1995) provides a complete analysis of (13) under the assumption that u is convex in gains and either convex or concave in losses. The option for (13) is then clear except in the mixed loss and gain region where x > 0 > y. Our results for the mixed region, which depend on limiting slopes of u at the origin and tex2html_wrap_inline2667 , show for most cases that there is a continuous curve in tex2html_wrap_inline2669 that separates tex2html_wrap_inline2671 and tex2html_wrap_inline2673 when (13) holds.

Research that followed Thaler (1985) in Thaler and Johnson (1990), Linville and Fischer (1991), and -- within a setting of certainty equivalents for monetary lotteries -- in Luce (1995) and Cho and Luce (1996), shows that (13) is not viable in many situations. Part of the difficulty arises in the mixed region, where individuals' assessments of joint receipts are not generally well understood. Another difficulty can be seen in the conjecture of Tversky and Kahneman (1992) that tex2html_wrap_inline2647 , which was sustained at least in the loss and gain regions separately in Cho and Luce (1996). If tex2html_wrap_inline2647 everywhere, it would gut (13) by effectively excluding tex2html_wrap_inline2673 . Also, as Tversky and Kahneman (1992) notes, if in fact we assume that tex2html_wrap_inline2673 , as was done in part of Luce and Fishburn (1991), and if tex2html_wrap_inline2647 , then u(x) = kx for some k > 0, and this linear form is supported neither by intuition nor by empirical research.

Empirical and theoretical investigations of joint receipt of lotteries or acts in decision under risk or uncertainty include, in addition to the certainty-equivalence approach of Luce (1995) and Cho and Luce (1996), Slovic and Lichtenstein (1968), Luce (1991), Luce and Fishburn (1991, 1995) and Cho, Luce and von Winterfeldt (1994). We comment briefly on representational aspects of Luce and Fishburn (1991, 1995) for a joint-receipt axiomatization of what they refer to as rank- and sign-dependent linear utility. A similar representation without the joint-receipt operation was proposed independently in Tversky and Kahneman (1992) and axiomatized in Wakker and Tversky (1993) under the rubric of cumulative prospect theory.

A central part of the representation in Luce and Fishburn (1991) is based on a qualitative structure tex2html_wrap_inline2689 where tex2html_wrap_inline1051 is a weak order on X, tex2html_wrap_inline1045 is a joint receipt operation on X, and e denotes the status quo consequence. Several axioms for the qualitative structure imply that there exists tex2html_wrap_inline1253 that satisfies (1) along with u(e) = 0 and

  equation901

where tex2html_wrap_inline2715 and tex2html_wrap_inline2717 are positive constants and tex2html_wrap_inline2719 and tex2html_wrap_inline2721 are constants. If u is unbounded and tex2html_wrap_inline1045 is monotonic in the sense that tex2html_wrap_inline2727 and tex2html_wrap_inline2729 and tex2html_wrap_inline2731 and tex2html_wrap_inline2733 , then tex2html_wrap_inline2735 and tex2html_wrap_inline2737 . On the other hand, if tex2html_wrap_inline2647 and if u is bounded and tex2html_wrap_inline1045 is monotonic, then (Luce and Fishburn 1995) tex2html_wrap_inline2745 and tex2html_wrap_inline2747 . In both cases, if tex2html_wrap_inline1045 is commutative and associative, then tex2html_wrap_inline2751 . The weighted additive forms in (14) for the mixed cases of tex2html_wrap_inline2753 and tex2html_wrap_inline2755 were adopted as a compromise between tex2html_wrap_inline2673 and more complex possibilities.

To expand the formulation to the context of decision under uncertainty, we can take tex2html_wrap_inline2603 as the set of all acts in tex2html_wrap_inline1787 that assign only finite numbers of consequences to the states, define tex2html_wrap_inline2609 as above, and assume that tex2html_wrap_inline1045 is associative so that tex2html_wrap_inline2617 can be replaced by the set tex2html_wrap_inline2769 of all finite sequences tex2html_wrap_inline2771 for which tex2html_wrap_inline2393 and tex2html_wrap_inline2775 for all i. Representation (14) applies under this expansion with tex2html_wrap_inline2779 . Given X in this form, Luce and Fishburn (1991) describes conditions which imply algebraic forms for the utility of acts that involve subjective probabilities. We illustrate with tex2html_wrap_inline2783 , as in a monetary context, with tex2html_wrap_inline1807 increasing in c.

Let cEd denote the act in tex2html_wrap_inline2603 that yields c if event tex2html_wrap_inline2795 obtains and yields d otherwise. Assuming that E is neither empty nor the universal event and that e = 0 with u(0) = 0, one form is

displaymath2805

with tex2html_wrap_inline2807 . This applies separately to gains, where tex2html_wrap_inline2809 and tex2html_wrap_inline2811 , and to losses, where tex2html_wrap_inline2813 and tex2html_wrap_inline2815 .

For each tex2html_wrap_inline2631 , let tex2html_wrap_inline2819 and tex2html_wrap_inline2821 , and define tex2html_wrap_inline2823 by

displaymath2825

A main part of the representation in Luce and Fishburn (1991) separates gains from losses in the decomposition

displaymath2827

with tex2html_wrap_inline2829 for tex2html_wrap_inline2831 and tex2html_wrap_inline2795 , and with the tex2html_wrap_inline2835 unique and u unique up to a proportionality transform that fixes u(e) at 0. Additional conditions that allow further refinements for tex2html_wrap_inline2841 and tex2html_wrap_inline2843 based on (14) are described in the reference.

Luce and Fishburn (1995) focuses on the monetary context with e = 0 and considers first the effect of tex2html_wrap_inline2647 for monetary amounts with tex2html_wrap_inline1045 monotonic. We adopt the first and last lines of (14) for joint gains and joint losses respectively, so that:

displaymath2851

We assume tex2html_wrap_inline2853 and tex2html_wrap_inline2855 , which imply u(x+y) < u(x) + u(y) for gains and u(x+y ) > u(x) + u(y) for losses, given tex2html_wrap_inline2647 . These inequalities are consistent with studies, including Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and others surveyed in Fishburn and Kochenberger (1979), that observe increasing marginal utility for losses and decreasing marginal utility for gains. We show in Luce and Fishburn (1995) that these hypotheses imply exponential expressions for utility of gains and utility of losses:

displaymath2863

We also consider lotteries without presuming tex2html_wrap_inline2647 but maintaining the parts of (14) just noted. Let x denote a lottery on gains tex2html_wrap_inline2869 with tex2html_wrap_inline2871 and tex2html_wrap_inline2873 . We identify fairly reasonable assumptions which imply the rank-dependent form (Quiggin 1993)

displaymath2875

in which tex2html_wrap_inline2877 and tex2html_wrap_inline2879 is a continuous and increasing map from [0,1] onto [0,1]. A similar form with tex2html_wrap_inline2885 in place of tex2html_wrap_inline2879 applies to lotteries on losses. The issue of mixed gains and losses is more problematic as described in Section 5 in Luce and Fishburn (1995).


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Peter.Fishburn